When The Past Is Not Prelude: Postnormal Becomes The New Normal

Jones, Chris and Weaver, Joel (2025) When The Past Is Not Prelude: Postnormal Becomes The New Normal. In: European International Studies Association (EISA), August 2025, Bologna University.

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Abstract

The international system is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by a departure from the Bretton Woods institutions and Westphalian principles. Traditional constructs such as sovereignty, balance of power, territorial integrity, and collective security are increasingly challenged by technological advancements, climate change, and globalization. The rise of failed states, empowered non-state actors, and disruptions to norms—including transactional nationalism—highlight a broader paradigm shift toward a multipolar world order as U.S. dominance wanes. The accelerating pace of change has redefined diplomacy and crisis management. Unlike the Cuban Missile Crisis era, where diplomatic exchanges allowed for hours of deliberation, today's global threats demand near-instantaneous responses. The complexity of the international arena has expanded, with NGOs, IGOs, social movements, and digital networks contributing to the management of "wicked problems." Tensions between local and global priorities are exacerbated by digitalization, rising authoritarianism, and the proliferation of disinformation. Uncertainty is pervasive. Climate change, potential climate refugee crises, pandemics, and the risks associated with advanced AI, including autonomous weapons, contribute to an increasingly volatile landscape. The paper examines the erosion of state power and the ascendance of advocacy movements, NGOs, and individuals in shaping governance. In response to Postnormal Times (PNT), leaders such as Trump, Putin, and Xi gravitate toward realism and zero-sum strategies. However, the underlying and relentless force driving global instability is climate change. Despite the rise of strongman politics, no leader is immune to the "grinding certitude of accelerating change." The future of international relations (IR) hinges on embracing transdisciplinary and creative solutions. The need for adaptable governance and the reimagining of borders and human constructs is critical to navigating this era of transformation. The paper calls for exploring plausible and preferred international futures within the emerging "new normal," balancing the potential for both darkness and a hopeful dawn.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Divisions:	College of Leadership and Innovation > Security and Resilience
Depositing User:	Research and Knowledge Exchange Office Admin 1
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2026 10:50
Last Modified:	16 Jun 2026 14:00
URI:	https://bnu.repository.guildhe.ac.uk/id/eprint/21046

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