What Can we Learn from Serious Incident Reports?

Ansbro, Maria (2006) What Can we Learn from Serious Incident Reports? Probation Journal, 53 (1). pp. 57-70. ISSN 0264-5505

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This is an examination of 90 Serious Incident Reports (SIRs) which were generated in the London Probation Area between January 2002 and July 2003. The results showed that offenders assessed as high risk generated a disproportionately high number of SIRs, but equally serious incidents occurred across all risk bands. Interpretation of this is not straightforward; despite confirming considerable accuracy by Probation staff in identifying those most likely to inflict harm, it also demonstrates the limitations of risk prediction, and the need for considerable skill and knowledge among staff who work with offenders of all risk bands. Among other findings it emerged that nearly a third of alleged offences that triggered SIRs were of rape. Lastly, there was a clear contrast in the predictive power of previous convictions: over half of those triggering a serious incident report through violent behaviour had previous convictions of violence, whereas under a quarter of those accused of a sexual offence had previous sexual convictions. Superficially this confirms that past violent behaviour is a powerful predictor of future violence, but also reflects the considerable gap between offending and conviction for sexual offenders.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: criminogenic factors, prediction, risk, risk principle, Serious Incident Report
Depositing User: ULCC Admin
Date Deposited: 03 Nov 2015 15:07
Last Modified: 15 Aug 2018 09:24
URI: https://bnu.repository.guildhe.ac.uk/id/eprint/9374

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